A Wall Street Genius’s Final Investment Playbook
Chapter 262 : Triangle Club (5)
This idea dinner was, in fact, a “high-stakes” poker game that would decide whether I could join the Triangle Club.
And I was playing with all my cards laid bare.
But…
There was a small problem here.
The hand I was holding wasn’t particularly strong.
‘AI is still too early for this era.’
That’s right.
I was planning to present the “Stark vs. Gooble AI War” as my investment idea.
But in order for it to succeed, all ten members needed to follow my lead and invest.
‘It won’t be easy like this.’
AI’s development was still in such an early stage.
There was potential for it to explode someday, but at this moment, the chances looked too slim.
If we put it in poker terms, it was like having three of a kind.
If I could draw one more matching card, I might jump to four of a kind, but people don’t usually bet big on odds like this.
Most prefer to aim for hands that are easier to complete, like a full house, a straight, or a flush.
‘In the end, my idea alone isn’t enough.’
Even so, I had to make them bet on my three of a kind.
There were only two methods I could use in this situation.
First, ‘persuasion.’
However…
‘Convincing this many people at once is impossible.’
No matter how skilled I was, going up against this many people simultaneously was overwhelming.
If I rushed in recklessly, they might unite to block me, which was risky.
Besides, I still didn’t have enough information to persuade them.
So for now, it was wise to seek an alternative.
The second method.
Negotiation.
‘If you give me your vote, I’ll give you something in return’ — that was the essence of negotiation.
On the surface, it might look like “buying votes,” but that’s just a common misconception about negotiation tactics.
‘I don’t really like this method…’
Unlike persuasion, in negotiation I have to give something up, so it ends up being far more costly.
So I didn’t prefer it.
‘Well, it’s not that I can’t do it, I just don’t want to.’
But in a situation like this, with so many opponents and so little information, it was better to at least give it a try.
The first place I visited was the “Stone Sanctuary.”
Just like its name, it was a meditation room carved out of a giant natural rock.
But inside, the face of the man sitting there looked familiar.
‘So he’s a member too.’
Daniel Roel.
A symbolic figure representing activist hedge funds.
The reason Roel became famous was none other than his “shareholder letters.”
His letters, aimed at boards and executives, were filled with biting sarcasm and cynicism. For example:
We can’t let you keep holding the steering wheel. You’ve been dozing off so long, you probably don’t even remember what the road looks like anymore.
If there was an Olympics for incompetence, you’d surely win the gold.
If you want to blame someone for this mess, blame two people: yourself and your mother who gave birth to you.
His letters, so savage they crossed lines, were considered almost a literary genre of their own.
I actually liked the literary flair of them, secretly.
Anyway.
Sensing my presence, Roel slowly opened his eyes and smiled.
“It’s a welcome face.”
A pretty favorable reaction.
‘So he was thinking about negotiation too.’
Well, on Wall Street, it was standard practice to try negotiation before anything important.
“Thank you for welcoming me. I was worried I might be interrupting your meditation.”
“Not at all. In fact, I’ve always wanted to talk with you. Your Valeant campaign was truly impressive. Using short selling to counter a short attack…"
He mentioned my past achievement with a bright smile.
It was a bit unexpected.
After all, the opponent I defeated at Valeant was none other than Ackman, another Triangle Club member.
‘Maybe they didn’t get along?’
While I was thinking that, Roel chuckled and continued.
“We look forward to working with you.”
It was an explicit invitation to join as a club member.
But…
“We?”
“There are three others who share my views.”
Meaning he wasn’t alone; they moved as a group of four.
Depending on his choice, four votes would move at once.
“If you show us your hand, we’d gladly consider cooperating.”
He was asking me to reveal my investment idea first.
But I couldn’t do that.
My hand was only three of a kind.
If I revealed it, I’d be at a disadvantage.
So I answered with a gentle smile.
“I’d prefer if we could work together without me showing my hand.”
“Haha, I’m sorry. It’s difficult to trust someone we’ve just met to that degree.”
“Of course, I’m not asking you to simply trust me.”
It was time to negotiate.
I already knew what I would propose to Roel.
“If you put that much trust in me, I’ll lend you my weapon.”
“A weapon…?”
“Retail investors.”
Yes, this was the biggest service I could offer.
Access to my “army of retail investors.”
To win at a shareholder meeting, activist hedge funds need to secure as many votes as possible.
Retail investors can hold up to 35% of an S&P 500 company’s shares, but they’re too scattered to exert any real power.
But me?
I’m the only person in America who can unite them as one force.
Meaning, if I help, I could rally up to an additional 35% of votes.
“If you trust me, I promise I’ll return the favor when it really counts.”
Roel seemed quite interested in my offer to mobilize the retail army. And he didn’t even try to hide it.
“That’s pretty tempting.”
“Of course, I need a fair price for that. I want your four votes.”
At that, Roel’s expression hardened slightly.
"Surely, you’re not suggesting that you’ll offer this ‘support’ to all four of us."
"Of course not. This support is meant for you alone."
At these words, Roel’s face hardened.
"So, you’re telling me to enjoy the benefits alone while my colleagues are left out. Do you really think they’d accept that?"
"I trust that you’re skilled enough to persuade them yourself."
There were plenty of ways he could appease his colleagues.
For example, he could ghostwrite shareholder letters for them.
"If this approach feels uncomfortable, I could provide support equally to all four of you. But wouldn’t that dilute the exclusivity?"
In fact, deploying the retail investor army too often would be toxic.
It might make a big splash once or twice, but if I kept summoning them every month, it would just cause fatigue and lose its impact.
Roel surely didn’t want that either.
In the end, he reached a quick conclusion.
"Exclusivity is important."
"Then, shall we consider it agreed?"
"Of course. I’ll handle persuading the others."
And just like that, with the “retail investor mobilization pass,” I secured four votes.
A great start.
Now, in my pocket, I had six votes total — Ackman’s, the Great White Shark’s, and the four from the activist camp.
I needed ten votes to pass, meaning I still had to secure four more.
Fortunately, there were still six people lingering in the resort’s common areas.
I thought that was a pretty optimistic number…
But what I immediately ran into was hardship.
The next person I encountered was Lyle Kass.
A macro fund manager known for predicting the subprime crisis, he opened his mouth almost accusingly as soon as he saw me.
"Was it really necessary to corner China that much? The yuan was destined to collapse anyway, you could’ve just waited."
He seemed displeased that I didn’t wait for the yuan to fall naturally and instead used the Delphi Report, retail investors, hyenas, and even elephants to intervene artificially.
‘Does he think I trespassed into his territory?’
Macro funds mainly deal with national-level issues.
So when I was active across Malaysia, Greece, and China recently, he must have felt I was running wild in their domain.
Still, I had to try negotiating first, so I spoke up.
"I rarely intervene in macro. If I do, it’s only for black swan events. What if, when the time comes, our directions align?"
This was my way of proposing: “When there’s an international event, I’ll share my black swan info, so please vote for me.”
But his response was unexpected.
"What concerns me most isn’t the ‘direction’ but the ‘speed.’"
"Speed?"
"We don’t welcome artificial interventions like what happened with China. If you let the flow proceed naturally and simply help ‘adjust’ the speed, then we might consider cooperating."
"Adjust, huh…"
I felt something was off.
"You say to let it flow naturally, but then ask to adjust the speed… Isn’t that essentially saying not to go against the flow?"
"Exactly."
"So, even if we’re heading in the same direction, you’re saying I have to match your speed no matter what? That doesn’t sound like ‘adjusting’; it sounds like a ‘leash.’"
Lyle Kass basically wanted to put a leash on me to prevent me from acting freely.
I had no reason to accept such a demand.
"That’s not my style."
I firmly refused.
In the end, the negotiation broke down.
‘Well, I guess this side was inevitable.’
Still, just confirming that the macro camp viewed me with hostility was a kind of gain.
In the bigger picture, it wasn’t bad.
They still had their uses.
‘I still have five more people to meet.’
But even after that, the obstacles continued.
Next, I met with the quants, and I proposed to them:
"I’ll share the results of my black swan prediction algorithm with you first."
I thought quants would find this offer very appealing.
After all, black swans were almost a kind of ‘romance’ to them.
But their reaction was unexpected.
"I’ve spent over ten years structuring large event risks, and I concluded that it’s impossible to capture black swans with a system. Yet, you, who aren’t even a professional, claim to have done it? Hard to believe."
They openly declared they had no trust in my algorithm at all.
"Even though I’ve already had successful predictions?"
"What matters to us is whether it’s reproducible, codable, and systemically explainable. Without that foundation, no matter how accurate the prediction, we can’t consider it a ‘signal.’"
"Even though I’ve gotten it right four times in a row?"
"Even if you got it right twenty times in a row, it wouldn’t change."
With that, they made a counterproposal.
"If, however, you can provide a verifiable framework and structural connections, then we’d reconsider."
In short, what they really wanted wasn’t the ‘result’ of the black swan, but the ‘algorithm’ that derived it.
My answer was already decided.
"That’s impossible."
Because that so-called algorithm didn’t even exist in the first place.
It was just a clever cover for my ‘future knowledge.’
Besides, even if there really were such an algorithm, the answer would be the same.
"It’s a trade secret."
Just like a patented formula, it couldn’t be casually revealed.
"If we’re talking cooperation, I could provide the secret in a specific form, but what you want is the entire recipe. That’s impossible."
"That’s unfortunate. But the offer remains open. Feel free to come back if you change your mind."
"You’re saying you don’t need the final product itself?"
"Again, we don’t place value on results without understanding the underlying principles."
"You’re not greedy at all."
"On the contrary, we’re very greedy. We care about the fishing method, not the fish itself."
In the end, the negotiation collapsed.
However…
The same condition was presented by the quants I met later in the library, sauna, and massage room.
"Contact us if you decide to share the algorithm. Until then, we can’t move forward."
In other words, they wouldn’t cast their votes unless I handed over the ‘recipe’ for the secret sauce.
Even after rejecting me, they all still said “come back anytime,” showing the same attitude.
In the end, I wasted two hours and didn’t secure a single vote.
‘I still need four more votes…’
The entire macro camp was hostile, and the quant camp was uniformly on hold.
For a moment, a thought crossed my mind.
‘Maybe… I really suck at negotiating?’
Perhaps I had focused too much on ‘persuasion’ all this time, leaving me with little real experience in negotiation.
But…
There was something that didn’t quite add up to simply chalk it up to lack of skill.
‘They don’t move together as a block, so why do they all demand the same thing even when met separately?’
Unlike Roel and his group, the quants didn’t act as a single unit.
Yet, they all asked for my ‘algorithm formula.’
By demanding something I could never provide, they claimed to be willing to negotiate.
‘Normally, that would mean they have no intention of negotiating…’
But this time, I couldn’t be so sure.
They all said, “The offer remains open,” and were careful not to push me into a hostile stance.
‘So, they chose neutrality in the end.’
The quants didn’t seem to have any intention of voting for me, but they also didn’t want to interfere with me.
They were just firmly choosing neutrality.
They even clearly declared to me, “We have no intention of attacking you.”
‘Well, neutrality is the safest option.’
By not getting involved with me at all, they’d avoid any possible future losses.
‘Neutrality itself isn’t weird…’
But it was still excessive for all five quants to choose neutrality at the same time.
‘What is this…’
While I was deep in thought, suddenly, a flash of insight struck me.
Like puzzle pieces snapping perfectly into place, the full picture came into view.
‘This is it.’
A smile spread across my face.
I had come up with a way to secure a large number of votes all at once.
As I thought, the answer lay in ‘persuasion.’