I Became the Youngest Daughter of a Chaebol Family
Chapter 162: Foreign Exchange Crisis (10)
It was October 12th, 1996.
Since foreign exchange options each have different expiration dates, the nearest maturity—if measured from the shortest standard—is November 12th.
Of course...
“One month won’t even hold. That’s why we go with barrier options as the first step.”
A thrilling product where its value skyrockets or turns into scrap paper if it crosses a certain exchange rate range.
It was a familiar rhythm. The time I first made money... I invested 100 million won into these foreign exchange options during the Plaza Accord.
Back then, since the ❀ Nоvеlігht ❀ (Don’t copy, read here) amount was small, I could boldly go for 100x leverage, but now, that’s hard. Even a fool could tell that something was seriously wrong in the Asian forex market.
Under normal circumstances, saying that the exchange rate would double was no different from the guy next door yelling there’d be a war tomorrow—but now, saying the exchange rate would double wasn’t so strange at all.
If Alpha Fund, holding a virtual nuclear weapon in this market—$100 billion—made such a declaration openly, it wouldn’t be fun anymore.
“Then... does that mean we’ll be selling options?”
“Yes. Didn’t I say we’d split into teams? We align our directional bet toward a won depreciation, and fill the rest with correlated market positions.”
Call options, put options, writing options, buying options... every strategy available in the options market must be utilized.
“Let’s proceed under the assumption that the exchange rate per dollar will hit 2,000 won, and that we’ll break through every barrier below that level.”
I paused to take a breath. Inside the office, the directors of Alpha Fund stared in silence.
“Of course... once the exchange rate passes 1,500 won, we must proceed with extreme caution. From that point, no one knows when the market might reverse. The government might intervene strongly, or it might spiral into an even greater panic. We need to capture that inflection point precisely, realize maximum profit, and pull out.”
According to my calculations, the rate would go as high as 2,000 won per dollar, but who knows what the butterfly effect might bring if left unchecked?
Another director raised a question.
“Young Miss, if... the market reacts earlier—or later—than expected, how should we respond?”
“That won’t happen.”
I answered firmly. There wasn’t even a sliver of doubt in my voice.
“Because I’ll make it happen.”
At those words, all eyes in the office fixed on me. Reverence mixed with a trace of fear lingered in their gazes.
As if they were finally realizing that this 18-year-old girl had the global financial market in the palm of her hand, my loyal subordinates swallowed nervously and focused their entire attention on my lips.
In the exhilarating moment of being the protagonist of a grand drama, I spoke again.
“No forex-related positions are to be held past November 15th. If we hit our target returns before that, liquidate immediately. And if the situation turns difficult, exit without regret. Greed is forbidden. We’ll already have gained more than enough. Got it?”
“Yes, ma’am!”
“Good. Now return to your stations and conduct your final checks. And... enjoy your last peaceful night of sleep. Starting tomorrow, it’ll be sleepless nights from here on out.”
As soon as I finished, everyone snapped to attention and moved in perfect coordination.
I turned my gaze to the window. The forest of buildings on Wall Street was dyed in the sunset. A painfully beautiful sight.
***
And just a few days later, my prophecy began to come true.
October 15th—The Korean won began to plunge uncontrollably. Day by day, the KRW/USD exchange rate soared, and the news buzzed nonstop about the Korean economic crisis.
[Breaking: USD/KRW breaches psychological threshold of 1,000 won!]
[Wall Street Journal: “IMF considering $60 billion emergency bailout for Korea.” Ministry of Finance denies the report.]
News came that IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus had secretly visited Korea.
The phones in the Alpha Fund office rang nonstop, and the monitors flashed frantically with constantly changing numbers and graphs.
October 16th—the government began to abandon its currency defense. Word spread that the foreign currency reserves had been completely depleted. Several hedge funds that tried to mimic me and hold up the exchange rate were forced to liquidate, leaving behind massive sunk costs.
[IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer visits Korea. Daily forex fluctuation limit raised to 10%...]
[10% spike in exchange rate in one day—raising the limit is now “virtually meaningless.”]
“Young Miss! Current rate is 1,250 won! The stock market is on the verge of triggering a circuit breaker!”
Ha Yeong-il’s urgent report came through.
I issued my order calmly.
“Unload part of our short stock positions. Take profits and secure cash.”
The stock market had reacted faster than expected. Thanks to manipulating the Korean market through Daehwa Securities, a more advanced system had taken root.
October 17th—Rumors spread quietly of President Kim Young-sam meeting with Park Tae-joon, Lee Hoi-chang, and Kim Dae-jung.
[October 17, 1996, 10:00 PM – Deputy Prime Minister Kim formally requests IMF bailout.]
It was due to the IMF bailout.
Though the information quickly became obsolete... I used that fleeting window to earn an extra $200 million. That was the worth of what the media would later lament as the “National Humiliation Day.”
Money flows mattered more than the declarations of a doomed country.
October 18th—YS announced a special public address about the IMF bailout.
October 19th—The Ministry of Finance and Economy formed a negotiation team for the IMF, and the IMF’s working-level group arrived in Korea.
October 20th—USD/KRW breached 1,400.
October 21st—Yamaiichi Securities, one of Japan’s Big Four securities firms, went bankrupt just shy of its 100th anniversary.
October 22nd—Credit rating agency S&P downgraded Korea’s credit rating by two notches.
October 23rd—Korea’s largest travel agency went bankrupt.
October 24th—Moody’s followed, downgrading Korea’s credit rating by two levels.
As time passed, the situation grew more intense.
October 25th.
USD/KRW briefly surpassed 1,500, and the market descended into panic. Corporate bankruptcies erupted like wildfire, and sighs of the unemployed filled the streets.
Alpha Fund, which had feasted on all that blood, now held assets exceeding $200 billion. In Korean won, that was 300 trillion—equivalent to three years of the Korean government’s budget.
[KOSPI Index drops below 400]
[10 comprehensive financial institutions ordered to suspend operations... Korean finance collapses]
Tak, tak.
I tapped the table with my fingers, lost in thought. After concluding a long contemplation, I opened my mouth.
“Sell off the rest of the stocks and reach out to the comprehensive financial companies to acquire infrastructure. Use Daehwa Securities.”
“...Understood. Final profit from stock shorting is $35 billion. Excluding what’s already withdrawn, an extra $15 billion is coming in. Where should we allocate it?”
I smirked.
“Use $5 billion to reduce leverage first. We don’t want our lenders feeling neglected. Put the remaining $10 billion into propping up the forex positions. We’ll return to the stock market once foreign investment caps are lifted.”
“Understood.”
After staying up for three straight nights, I felt dizzy. So that day, I rested deeply.
.
.
.
When I woke up, the news came that the memorandum of understanding had been signed. Korea’s economic sovereignty now belonged to the IMF.
***
Time passed. Had passed. And was still passing.
The time value baked into the now-fixed outcomes had evaporated from the options. In return for taking on that risk, I earned $30 billion. And it was promptly reinvested.
October 26th—Koryo Securities went bankrupt.
October 27th—Despite the danger, Hyunseon Group acquired Yongjin Motors. Having momentarily overtaken Mirae Group, Hyunseon became second only to Daehwa—but its debt ratio hit 500%.
October 28th—Halla Group, formerly ranked 13th in the corporate world, went bankrupt.
[USD/KRW nears 1,700... Unprecedented economic crisis]
[Five more financial firms suspended... Foreign stock investment cap raised to 50%]
[Exchange rate hits upper limit for 3 consecutive days. Forex market closes within an hour of opening]
Sarak.
I smiled faintly as I read the morning paper with my usual coffee.
“You really have to wake up early these days. So much to read in the newspaper.”
These days, my only worries were that trivial. When I glanced in the mirror, my dark circles had sunk deep.
And finally, November 1st.
On the very day Moody’s downgraded Korea’s credit rating to “non-investment grade,” near-junk status.
USD/KRW momentarily broke 1,800 during the trading session. It was the moment the number I had prophesied became reality.
“We’ve got it, Young Miss!”
Ha Yeong-il’s voice burst out. His face was drenched in sweat, but his eyes gleamed with fervor.
I nodded silently.
“Prepare to liquidate all forex positions.”
With $70 billion in direct shorts and $40 billion in derivatives, liquidation took a long time.
-USD/KRW: 1802
-USD/KRW: 1834
-USD/KRW: 1864
The rate was still skyrocketing, but thanks to that, the avalanche of positions I unleashed was being absorbed.
“Isn’t this a bit... early to sell?”
“No. It’s enough. We’ve liquidated 30%, right?”
“Yes, 32%... Now 36%.”
The market session was nearing its end...
Click.
“There we go.”
As the exchange rate stopped moving, the short selling I’d prepared slowly came to a close.
‘That was close...’
I quietly wiped the sweat pooling in my palms.
November 1st’s session also ended with the exchange rate rising, though not by much. Saying that a 50-won rise wasn’t “much” might sound absurd, but—
In times when the words “national collapse” were tossed around freely, this was the norm.
.
.
.
The next day, the peak exchange rate briefly passed 2,000 won per dollar before retreating.
-USD/KRW: 1971
Having closed out all my short positions at the peak, I stared at the now-empty monitor and muttered softly,
“It’s over.”
Korea’s economy had collapsed catastrophically.
[S&P downgrades Korea’s sovereign credit rating... A- → BBB-]
The article beside me said as much.
That Korea was finished.