CHAPTER 199: INTEL ANALYSIS

CH199 Intel Analysis

***

"Ah!" Realisation dawned on Udara.

She couldn’t believe she had missed something so obvious.

"Also, let’s say you did want to rebuild a city," Alex continued. "Does it make sense to channel the bulk of your ores to a city that’s supposed to be rebuilt with wood, brick, and mortar? To send all your Master Smiths to handle the project? Including the ones who specialise in military constructs?"

He let the words settle for a moment before driving his point home.

"This tells us at least two things. One, there is something more going on in Ormshire than just city reconstruction. Two, whatever the Master Smiths are building, it surely isn’t a civilian construct."

Alex allowed the point to hang, not dissecting it any further... for now.

Meanwhile, Udara nodded, clearly understanding. So, Alex moved on.

"Textiles follow a similar line of logic. If a city was devastated by a plague, then logically, it would have fewer people to clothe. Yet the demand for clothes increased so drastically that it affected distribution across other cities and towns in the fief?

"If we take that claim at face value, then it implies poor administration on the part of the Kellerman family. But how likely is that?

"How likely is it that an Earl family, with centuries of experience, would make such a blunder? Even if Earl Kellerman is known to blow hot air, he could only do so believably if his foundation is solid and his house is in order. A mismanagement that drastic is unlikely.

"Once again, all signs point back to one premise—there is more going on in Ormshire."

Alex gave Udara a pointed look. She nodded, following his logic closely.

Encouraged, Alex continued.

"Salt and food shortages were a bit more creatively explained—a wildfire gutting the largest salt reserves and farmlands within the fief.

"But again, here’s the issue: even low-ranking barons have measures in place to prevent or mitigate such outcomes. Then what about a higher noble like an Earl?

"Let’s not forget—the Kellerman fief isn’t just any Earldom. It’s on the cusp of becoming a Marquisate. A power like that certainly has professionals and infrastructure in place to deal with such events.

"Now, let’s talk about the people. Sure, it’s believable that people would form bandit squads after a natural disaster that destroys food supplies. But history and evidence show that bandits—especially those driven by the need to survive—don’t block trade completely.

"At most, they make trade more costly by demanding a toll. They don’t shut down entire trade routes, forcing merchants to seek out alternate, more hazardous paths. That would defeat the purpose of banditry—if trade is halted completely, there’s no profit or value to be gained."

Alex’s tone turned sharp.

"Oh—and let’s not forget that Ormshire just happens to be located in the same expansive southwest region where the wildfire struck. But Lucas didn’t mention a food crisis in Ormshire, did he?

"That means food is somehow reaching the people there.

"So, who’s supplying it? If the fief is providing the food, then that same supply route could—and should—be used to support other cities. Yet, they aren’t doing that.

"On the other hand, if bandits are the ones delivering the food, then considering Ormshire is currently under direct fiefdom control due to its so-called reconstruction, the Kellermans must be aware of the bandits’ identities.

"And since the banditry continues without consequence... then the Fief must be involved in some way."

Alex took a moment to catch his breath and gather his thoughts.

"If we put all our suspicions together, this is what we see..." he said, counting off on his fingers.

"One, there’s clearly more going on in Ormshire than simple city reconstruction. The army of smiths gathered there must be building or crafting something big—or in large quantities.

"Two, the large volume of textiles being routed to Ormshire suggests a significant population gathered there. And I’m not just talking about the smiths, possible builders, or survivors from a ’devastated’ city. That number wouldn’t justify the kind of demand we’re seeing.

"Three, the fief’s involvement in shutting down the usual trade routes, leading to the use of more difficult ones can’t be a coincidence."

He paused briefly before continuing, his tone sharpening.

"If we ignore the public narrative for a moment and focus on the facts—or our suspicions, depending on one’s point of view—the more likely scenario is that the plague in Ormshire and the wildfire across the greater southwest region of the Kellerman Fief was either staged, or at the very least, exaggerated.

"Resources are being diverted to Ormshire for a reason the fief doesn’t want made public.

"And considering that—according to the report I just read—Ormshire was home to twenty thousand families, and had the highest population of military-aged males in the entire fiefdom... there can be only one likely reason for all this..."

He looked up.

"War."

His voice sharpened as he spoke the word, the final puzzle piece clicking into place.

"The Kellermans must have turned Ormshire into a massive military camp—gathering and training troops, and serving as a staging area for an invasion. Given its location, the most likely target is our Fury Family."

He continued, ticking off more of the clues.

"The spike in food and salt is clearly to feed soldiers. The textile demand is for uniforms, war flags, and inner-layers for armour. The surge in ore and blacksmith activity points to large-scale weapon production."

Alex leaned back slightly, voice firm with conviction.

"So, based on all this—circumstantial though it may be—Saint Holder and I have enough to not only be convinced ourselves, but also to convince the Fury Military High Command that a Kellerman invasion is imminent. Especially now, with Wildkin tensions on the rise."

He smirked lightly.

"Of course, I’m certain the Black Mantle Head will dispatch operatives to verify our suspicions while we’re en route back to the Northern Dankrot Barrier Fort."

Udara stared at him, a mixture of awe and astonishment in her expression. It felt as though a whole new dimension of warfare had opened before her eyes—one she had never considered before.

Alex smiled knowingly.

He could sympathise with the feeling. Even in his previous life, it had taken two world wars and the brink of nuclear conflict between the world’s largest superpowers before nations fully recognised the importance of intelligence—to the point that, by the time of his reincarnation, it had become the most valuable asset in the world. More so than gold, more than land, more than even power.

At that moment, a thought crossed his mind—something he had forgotten to mention.

"Do you know how the Black Mantle can easily confirm whether our suspicions are valid?"

***